Think the election was close? They say demographics is destiny. But could Romney changed the demographics and altered destiny? Maybe if ORCA hadn't failed Romney would have been able to get more of his voters out and won. Or maybe if the voter suppression efforts had only be a bit more aggressive? Or maybe if True-the-Vote had only been able to challenge a few mor minorities at the polls?
Find out if it's true! Using demographic data from exit polls, this page allows you to quickly model changes in the demographics of the voters to see how easy or hard it would be to flip the election! (Spoiler: it's a lot harder than you think...)
Pick any of the sections below; you can drag the sliders around, change the turn out in the election, and see what happens!
For more information, press
Change the gender distribution of voters
Men voted for Romney 52% of the time. Women voted for Obama 55% of the time. Could Romney have altered the balance of the votes? If so, how many more men or fewer women would have been needed to change the outcome? Drag the sliders to zero-to-doube voters in either category:
Change in male voters: 0
Change in women voters: 0
Change the income distribution of voters
People making under $50,000 a year voted 60% of the time for Obama, while those making between $50K and $100K voted 52% of the time for Romney and those over $100K voted 54% of the time for Romney. How big a shift in income demographics would have been needed to win the race for Romney? Drag the sliders to zero-to-doube voters in any category:
Change in Lower Income Voters (0-$50,000): 0
Change in Middle Income Voters ($50,000-$100,000): 0
Change in Upper Income Voters ($100,000 and up): 0
Change the racial distribution of voters
Whites voted more often for Romney (59%), while minorities voted heavily for Obama (71% to 93%). Change the racial make up of the polls to see what happens. Drag the sliders to zero-to-double the voters in any category:
Change in white voters: 0
Change in african-american voters: 0
Change in latino voters: 0
Change in asian voters: 0
Change in other voters: 0
Change the age distribution of voters
People 44 and under cast more votes for Obama, while voters 45 and over cast more votes for Romney. Could a buffy-the-vampire-slayer marathon on cable TV have distracted enough younger voters to let the old folks put Romney in the white house? Drag the sliders to zero-to-double the voters in any age group to see how it affects the vote totals:
Change in voters 18-29: 0
Change in voters 30-44: 0
Change in voters 45-64: 0
Change in voters 65 or over: 0
You are free to re-use it as you see fit, merely give credit to Charles McGuinness, SocialSeer.com
Exit poll information is available in a variety of places. One of the best I've found is at Fox News' web site.
Please remember that exit polls are notoriously imprecise, and any numbers you come up with are very approximate at best. Even if you drag all the sliders to zero, you won't get 0 votes; the exit poll numbers have been rounded before being reported, and so that introduces some error.
Nota Bene: if you have a time machine, do not attempt to travel back before the election and use this as a guide. Romney will still lose, you will show up at my door before I have written this to cuss me out for giving bad advice, and it will just confuse me.
You are welcome to link to this page, frame this page, or, if you are technically inclined, extract the web page and associated code for your own personal enjoyment; just give me credit.
If you find any errors in the page, or have any comments, please feel free to email me at the above address.
You can also find me on Twitter at @SocialSeerCom -- If you like this, you never know what I will come up with next.
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