Why it’s not fair to bring Trayvon Martin’s social media posts into the Zimmerman trial

An article in the Miami Herald suggests that George Zimmerman’s attorney will try to use Trayvon Martin’s twitter and Facebook posts to defend Zimmerman.

There is, of course, outrage at an attempt to blame the victim, but there is another reason why this is a bad idea: Trayvon is not here to defend himself and the posts might be used to improperly impugn his character.

The biggest problem with such posts is that we cannot reliably intuit the intent behind them.  Social media posts are often short, spontaneous, and may be anywhere from revealing the inner soul of the poster to play acting at a role that is distinct from the person’s character.

We should not be surprised at a teenager saying things that are outrageous, and we should not assume they reflect who Trayvon really was.

If Trayvon were still alive, he would able to defend himself and explain his posts. He would have a chance to say what he really felt — although we would still trip over the blame-the-victim problem.

But since he is not, his postings will be, at the very best, completely  uninformative. At worst, and more likely, they will be terribly misleading.  It would be a scandal if a naive jury took that as the basis of reasonable doubt.

Let’s hope the judge doesn’t allow this.

Update to Tag-O-Matic

I’ve released the next version of Tag-O-Matic, you can see the documentation and download information here.

Tag-o-Matic is a research tool for helping you to compose tweets.  The first version showed you the most popular hash tags for a given set of terms; the new version also shows you the most frequently referenced users for the terms as well.

Take a look at it, give it a whirl, and let me know what you think!

Hashtag Hijack: #Forward moving the President Backwards

I wrote, earlier, about how the attempt to hijack the hash tag #DontDoubleMyRate didn’t really work out too well.  Well, a few days have passed, and now the hashtag du jour is #Forward, and once again conservatives are attempting to take over the tag for their own purposes.

Will they fail like last time? Nope.  This time they’re pulling it off.  In a review of roughly 15,000 posts up to midnight, 4/30/2012 (EDT), the uses of #Forward are:

Roughly two thirds of all tweets using the hash tag are anti-Obama.

Compare this to what happened with #DontDoubleMyRate:

I think we can draw the conclusion that if you come up with a hash tag that personally resonates with your constituency, they’ll tweet their hearts out.  The number of tweets for the #DontDoubleMyRate hash tag is about 4 times larger than for #Forward, and the difference is probably the added supporters of Obama.  I suspect that there’s going to be a consistent pool of conservatives who will jump on (and trash) any hash tag Obama is using, and if the pro-obama tweeple don’t get excited, the hash tag is going to go down in flames.

Methodology:

I retrieved 15,038 tweets using the hashtag #forward prior to 5/1/2012, which was all the tweets using #forward  I could find.  Of those, I randomly examined 375 to determine if the tweet was pro- or anti-obama or just unrelated (a few soccer and basketball forwards in the mix).  That determination is admittedly subjective, but is really only likely to be in question for a small # of tweets (most were abundantly clear that they were anti-obama.  Some required looking at the contents of a URL to determine the intent, and for the 5 or 6 that were that way I just marked them as no being anti-Obama.)The sample size allows me to estimate the percentage of anti-Obama tweets is 68% +/- 5%, with a confidence level of 95%. Statistics FTW!